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| Don't miss this 16/1 Golden opportunity...
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By:
Matt Nesbitt
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The new football season kicks off on the 11th August - and there's still enough time to snap up the 'antepost' value...
Today Mr X has turned an expert eye towards the Premiership 'Golden Boot' market, and come up with a 16/1 gem for you.
Over to Mr X...
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Premiership Golden Boot 2007/8 - Form Guide
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"Less than two weeks to go to the start of the Premiership season - and now is the time for us to pick up some excellent value in a fascinating Golden Boot market.
Who will score the most Premiership goals in the coming season? I reckon it may well be a 'surprise' winner this year - and at a cracking price. Here are the main contenders...
Didier Drogba (Chelsea)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 20 Goals 2005/6 - 12 2004/5 - 10
This year's favourite to win at a rather prohibitive 9/2. After a slow start to Premiership life Drogba clicked into gear last season with an impressive tally of 20 hits, and while he looks the worthy market leader, doesn't look any value at such a short price.
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 14 2005/6 - 16 2004/5 - 11
The 2007/8 2nd favourite, and another who looks too short at 10/1 - Rooney looks destined to bag another double-figure haul in 2007/8 but it's very hard to justify such a short price about a player that has yet to break the 20 goal mark.
Dimitar Berbatov (Tottenham Hotspur)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 12
The bookmakers see 'marksman' Berbatov as a 14/1 chance to top the scoring tables - that's well above the price of 'creator' Rooney. The Bulgarian made an excellent start to his Premiership career last term and can improve slightly on that tally in 2007/8.
There is a 'negative' however, Spurs boss Jol is expected to rotate his forwards quite a bit in 2007/8 and that could damage Berbatov's chances of scoring 20+ goals.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Man Utd)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 17 2005/6 - 9 2004/5 - 5
A top price of 14/1 is available about Ronnie but even then it's hard to get steamed up about his win chances in 2007/8. United can be expected to share the goals out again in 2007/8 and that puts me off taking the Portuguese here.
Fernando Torres (Liverpool)
Form Guide Rookie
Rookies have a bad record in this market, but trends change and there's no Henry to contend with this season. Torres has a reputation of a prolific scorer, however I beg to differ on that point. The last 3 seasons have seen the ex-Atletico Madrid man bag
just 14, 13 and 16 La Liga goals (most recent first) over in Spain despite playing a stack of matches, and he makes little appeal to top the end-of-season list at 16/1.
Robin Van Persie (Arsenal)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 11 2005/6 - 6 2004/5 - 5
Life without Thierry Henry makes van Persie a 20/1 chance this season, but the big question has to be, 'has he the guts to take over from the big man?' That's what he'll have to do if he's going to top this market. Not for me.
Andriy Shevchenko (Chelsea)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 4
It took Drogba a while to click at Chelsea, and that could be the case with this guy too. But even in his early days Drogba always looked 'sharp,' which wasn't the case with Shev last season - in fact Shevchenko often looked sluggish. Even at 14/1 and 16/1 he makes little appeal.
Michael Owen (Newcastle)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 0 2005/6 - 7
16/1 looks a big price about a player that will be the focus of his team's attacking plans, but as is always the case with Owen, you have to factor in the chances that he'll play yet another injury hit 'short' season.
Frank Lampard (Chelsea)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 11 2005/6 - 16 2004/5 - 13
25/1 about Frank might make some appeal, but when you take into account how many 'wonderful strikes' it took to get him up to 16 goals in 2005/6, the chances look slim of him reaching the number of goals required to win this.
Darren Bent (Tottenham Hotspur)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 13 2005/6 - 18
25/1 Bent looks a skinny price. Scoring for Charlton is one thing (most if not all teams saw their matches against Athletic last season as potential wins and played accordingly) but scoring for Spurs will be a different kettle of fish entirely. He looks an 'iffy' buy to me.
Eduardo Da Silva (Arsenal)
Form Guide Rookie
The early 40/1 about Da Silva soon disappeared but there's still plenty of 25/1 available if you're keen. This kid is top class and comes with a big reputation - and if he clicks straight away he's guaranteed games. An each way wager could look appealing, but the fact that he's a rookie in Europe's hardest league puts me off.
Benedict McCarthy (Blackburn)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 18
16/1 about the ex-Porto man does look a very fair price. 18 goals in his rookie year is a very good performance and with Craig Bellamy long gone from the Rovers ranks, he'll be the main focus of Mark Hughes's scoring plans again in 2007/8.
Nicolas Anelka (Bolton)
Form Guide 2006/7 0 11 2005/6 - N/A 2004/5 - 7
At 33/1 the 'Incredible Sulk' will have his supporters, but his 11 goals from 35 games last term will need some improving on if he's going to nick a place in the Top 4 this season.
Robbie Keane (Tottenham Hotspur)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 11 2005/6 - 16 2004/5 - 12
33/1 Keane is of no appeal either. How many forwards are Tottenham going to put on the payroll? With only 2 of Berbatov, Bent, Keane and Defoe likely to start I really can't get excited about any of that four playing enough matches to put them in with a shout of the Golden Boot.
Dirk Kuyt (Liverpool)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 12
Kuyt made a bright start to his Premiership career, however with Benitez having so many top quality strikers on his books it's hard to see any one of them being given enough matches to challenge for the Premiership's Top Scorer. Even at 33/1 this talented striker makes little appeal.
Mark Viduka (Newcastle)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 14 2005/6 - 7 2004/5 - 5
At 31 years old Viduka is playing one of his last Premiership seasons and depending on how things go early on at St James Park he could well go out with a bang. The fact that he's the choice of new Geordies boss Sam Allardyce is significant, and with only domestic honours to chase he could well get the games he needs to feature on
the top scorers list.
Andrew Johnson (Everton)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 11 2005/6 - N/A 2004/5 - 21
Rumours linking Johnson to other clubs have been circling Goodison Park for a few weeks now, but despite the big price tags placed on his head, Everton are adamant that he's staying put. Johnson scored 74 goals in 140 games for his previous club Crystal Palace - and in an injury-plagued season netted 11 times in 32 games for Everton last year. But that's a better performance than it looked - Everton had stacks of injury problems to key players last season and Johnson didn't see much in the way of a regular 'supply'. With that in mind 25/1 is a sound price for a player that will spearhead Everton's attack.
Louis Saha (Man Utd)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 8 2005/6 - 7 2004/5 - 1
40/1 would look a big price about Louis Saha if Tevez fails to sign for United. Ferguson has stuck by the injury-plagued Frenchman through thick and thin and with legend Henrik Larsson out of the way he could get a good number of run outs this season alongside Wayne Rooney - and that would be good news for his goal count. But if Tevez does show up - it would take the shine off Saha's prospects.
Carlos Tevez (West Ham)
Form Guide 2006/7 - 7
The first thing backers have to ponder is, 'where will Tevez be playing this year?' If he stays at West Ham, well the Hammers are far from a settled side right now, and while there's no doubting this guy's talent, he can't do it all on his own forever. If he moves to Man U, then I reckon he'll find it a bit tougher to get on the scoreboard than he did at the back end of last season, when West Ham were playing teams that didn't much care whether they won or lost. Either way I don't see him as a bet at around 14/1.
Claudio Pizzaro (Chelsea)
Form Guide. Nil.
This Peruvian has arrived at Chelsea on a free 'Bosman' transfer and is being paid 5 million dollars to score goals - and with his track record he could do just that. Pizzaro netted 71 times in 174 games for his previous club Bayern Munich, and before that scored 29 goals in 56 matches for Werder Bremen - good figures, achieved with two top-notch sides. This man can play - and at a huge 66/1 he is surely worth a bet.
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SUMMARY:
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For the first time in years we haven't got Thierry Henry heading the betting at a short price - in his place we have Didier Drogba but he's a totally different type of player to the Arsenal legend.
At 10/1 Rooney looks too short, as do Berbatov, Torres, Ronaldo and van Persie - for the reasons mentioned above.
I like Benedict McCarthy at 16/1. His profile is good and crucially, he's Blackburn's centerpiece where scoring goals is concerned. He also takes the penalties which is an obvious plus, and with Blackburn only having domestic interests to concern themselves with in 2007/8 there's no real danger of burnout either.
With a clean bill of health Andy Johnson can go well at a big price (25/1). Injury to himself and those 'creators' around him ruined his Golden Boot chances last season, but he still popped up to score 11 goals. With zero competition and a heart for only Everton FC he can go well in 2007/8.
Finally, I have to give serious consideration to a small bet on Claudio Pizzaro (66/1 Paddy Power), who could be a real surprise package.
Bookmakers will give us a great Each Way deal on this market - 'one quarter the odds the first four' - and all our guys are worth an 'Each Way' investment."
***** *****
Good luck!
Matt Nesbitt
Editor, http://www.sportsxtra.co.uk
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